The current situation in the Mediterranean Sea is critical. Tens of thousands of refugees and migrants are trying to reach European shores from the coasts of Africa and Asia. We model the migrant activity using our BANDIT platform. We consider their goals and capabilities, we estimate the parameters of the vessels used for transit and model various realizations with differing fuel level, speed etc., also integrating current oceanographic and meteorological conditions. The results show us most likely routes of the migrants, possible drifting trajectories of damaged boats and best time intervals for transit helping to decide how to allocate naval assets and deploy surveillance drones.